The future of the automobile was sealed at North America’s biggest auto show this week, where all of the hottest new cars and concepts had extension cords.
Any idea that ethanol or hydrogen will lead us past petroleum was tossed out the window, as the big automakers — hobbled by a brutal economy, gyrating oil prices and humiliating congressional tongue-lashings — limped into the Detroit auto show. They all put on a brave face with the hybrids and electric vehicles they promise to start putting on the road next year.
"They’ve finally gotten a little religion," says Chelsea Sexton, an EV advocate who serves on the advisory board of Plug-In America. "The auto industry is at the point where it has to invest in its future, and smart investors bet on the inevitable. Electric drive is inevitable."
Sexton is biased, but her point is rock solid. Until now, electric cars were always part of the auto industry’s post-petroleum plans, but only as one of many technologies they said would lead us to a greener, cleaner future. No more: Now, all bets are on batteries.
No one mentioned ethanol. There was little discussion of flex-fuels. And aside from Honda’s ongoing infatuation with the stuff, most agree that hydrogen remains a distant dream.
"We’re starting to see the path forward coalesce," says Aaron Bragman, an auto-industry analyst with IHS Global Insight. "They’re all rallying around electric vehicles, and these aren’t cars that are five or 10 years away. These cars are on production timelines."
What’s more, hybrids and EVs are no longer niche vehicles that only Al Gore would want to drive. Prototypes and production models are appearing in every segment and at every price point. Automakers unveiled compact city cars like the Smart EV that hits the road by year’s end, midsize sedans like the Chrysler 200C EV concept, and luxury cars like the Fisker Karma plug-in hybrid coming this fall.
That’s not to say that plug-in hybrids and EVs will flood the roads anytime soon. Internal combustion will remain the dominant technology for the near future. But the first cars with cords hit the road this winter, and electric technology will be commonplace by the end of the next decade.
"We’ll see these vehicles really entering the mainstream from 2012 to 2015," says Joe Langley, an industry analyst with CSM Worldwide. "We should see the same trajectory hybrids have followed, going from the first iteration to becoming household words by 2018."
Hybrids, which are already one of the auto industry’s hottest segments, will be the bridge between gasoline and electricity, and the market will grow increasingly competitive. Honda’s dirt-cheap Insight sets the benchmark for affordability, the 2010 Toyota Prius sets the standard for fuel economy, and the Ford Fusion hybrid shows Japan doesn’t have a lock on gas-electric technology.
"Finally having a hybrid under $20,000 is huge," Spencer Quong of the Union of Concerned Scientists says of the Insight. "The Prius will be more expensive, but breaking the 50-mpg barrier is huge."
Extended-range electric vehicles take us another big step away from petroleum. Cars like the Cadillac Converj concept vehicle — along with the Fisker Karma and the Chevrolet Volt coming next year — use electricity to drive the wheels and a small internal combustion engine to recharge the battery as it approaches depletion. Automakers like the technology because it eliminates the "range anxiety" that can make EVs a tough sell. Such drivetrains are more straightforward than those in hybrids like the Toyota Prius, which use both electric and gasoline power to turn the wheels.
But a growing number of automakers are going all-in with battery electric vehicles that eschew petroleum entirely. Daimler and Ford were among the major automakers promising to put EVs on the road soon, albeit in limited numbers. Lotus is exploring an EV to compete against the Tesla Roadster. BMW is taking applications from people willing to participate in what is essentially a massive R&D project field testing 500 Mini-E electric cars. Even Toyota, which has never shown much interest in battery-electric vehicles, rolled out a prototype based on the cute iQ city car.
It would be easy to dismiss, as some have, the industry’s electric embrace as a knee-jerk response to recent sky-high fuel prices or — in the case of the Big Three — the beating they’ve taken lately from Congress and the public. But the auto industry’s development timeline is measured in years, not months, and these cars were in the works long before auto sales collapsed. What’s new is the solid commitment to the technology.
"We’re convinced that electrification is the next major shift in the light-duty transport sector," says Nancy Gioia, director of sustainable-mobility technology at Ford.
The commitment comes as the price of gas hovers around $1.79. As a result, hybrid sales fell 50 percent in November, making some wonder, what’s the point. But no one expects gas to stay cheap for long.
"Last summer’s $4-a-gallon was no anomaly," says Irv Miller, a Toyota vice president. "It was a brief glimpse of our future. We must address the inevitability of peak oil by developing vehicles powered by alternatives to liquid-oil fuel."
Batteries remain the biggest challenge to getting these cars on the road in big numbers. Even the latest lithium-ion batteries need six or eight hours to charge and typically offer a range of 100 miles or so. They’re also frightfully expensive, which is one reason the Chevrolet Volt is expected to cost as much as $40,000 when it arrives in showrooms at the end of next year.
All of the major automakers are allying themselves with battery manufacturers, with Tesla signing a deal with Daimler just this week and GM announcing it will work with South Korea’s LG Chem on a battery plant in Michigan. Even Chinese automaker BYD is getting in on the action, announcing it has developed a lithium–ferrous phosphate battery that costs half as much as lithium-ion, has a range of 250 miles and requires just three hours to charge.
Everyone is racing to solve the battery riddle and be the first to bring cars with cords to your driveway. Winning the race is as much about image as it is about sales.
"Everyone wants to be the first to grab the hearts and minds of consumers. like Toyota did with the Prius," Langley, the industry analyst with CSM Worldwide, says. "Everyone wants the same halo effect Toyota got with the Prius. They want to be recognized as the leader in the field."
